Softbank Default Swaps May Drop, Morgan Stanley Says (Update2)

Investors may make more bets on the
improving finances of Softbank Corp., Japan's third-largest
mobile-phone company, by selling credit-default swaps, Morgan
Stanley Japan Securities Co. said.

Sellers of the derivatives, which provide buyers with
protection from a firm's inability to repay debt, are attracted
by a price that overstates the chance Softbank will fail to meet
its obligations, said Hidetoshi Ohashi, a Morgan Stanley credit
analyst in Tokyo. The extra yield investors demand to hold
Softbank bonds over Japanese swap rates has halved in the past
year. Spreads on Softbank credit-default swaps fell by a quarter.

Softbank said on May 8 its fourth-quarter operating profit
more than doubled, helping allay concern that it would be unable
to repay loans that funded its 1.66 trillion yen ($13.8 billion)
acquisition of Vodafone Group Plc's Japanese mobile-phone unit.
The purchase in April last year extended billionaire Masayoshi
Son's challenge to market leaders NTT DoCoMo Inc. and KDDI Corp.

``The company's earnings showed the mobile phone businesses
are doing better than anticipated,'' said Ohashi, the third-
highest-ranked credit analyst in Japan, according to a survey by
Nikkei Bonds and Financial Weekly. ``Investors are selling
Softbank CDS to earn income because cash bonds are expensive
relative to the CDS premium.''

Narrowing Spreads

Credit-default swaps based on 1 billion yen of Softbank debt
closed in Japan at 25.8 million yen from 26.3 million yen
yesterday, according to prices from JPMorgan Chase & Co. Trading
volume today between dealers was about 8 billion yen, more than
five times the normal daily amount, said Mana Nakazora, chief
credit analyst at JPMorgan Securities Japan in Tokyo.

The cost of the contracts was as much as 39.6 million yen
in March 2006, the highest since Bloomberg began tracking the
contracts in February 2005. Sellers of the five-year contracts
receive quarterly payments because they agree to pay buyers the
face value of the notes in a default in exchange for the
underlying securities.

The cost of the five-year contracts is equivalent to 258
basis points, or 2.58 percent of the amount protected. The cost
may fall below 200 basis points in the next six to 12 months,
Morgan Stanley's Ohashi said.

The yield spread between the company's 40 billion yen in
1.98 percent bonds due in September 2010 and similar-maturity
swap rates narrowed to 166 basis points yesterday, from 333 basis
points a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Operating profit rose to 73.8 billion yen in the three
months ended March 31 from 34.4 billion yen, and sales more than
doubled to 721.9 billion yen, Tokyo-based Softbank said on May 8.

BBB Rating

Softbank's debt carries a BBB ranking from Japan Credit
Rating Agency, the second-lowest investment grade. Moody's
Investors Service and Standard & Poor's assign the company high-
risk, high-yield ratings of Ba2 and BB-, respectively.

``The earnings showed that Softbank's risk is equivalent to
a BBB rating,'' Ohashi said. ``People paid too much of a premium
to compensate for Softbank's risk.''

Shares of Softbank yesterday fell the most in almost two
months as UBS Securities Japan Ltd. recommended selling the stock
after fourth-quarter net income slid 83 percent. The shares,
which declined 3.2 percent yesterday, dropped another 0.8 percent
today to 2,595 yen.

Excluding gains from the former Vodafone subsidiary,
operating profit would have declined, UBS analysts Makio Inui and
Kei Takahashi wrote in the May 8 report. The focus on the mobile-
phone unit ``led to some stagnation'' in other businesses such as
fixed lines, the analysts said.

Softbank has the worst financial health in Japan among 129
companies tracked by Morgan Stanley, credit-default swaps show.
The company said it booked taxes of 60.4 billion yen, partly
because of goodwill relating to the Vodafone purchase.

`Good Overall'

The telecommunications group is betting it can add to its 17
percent share of Japan's $75 billion mobile-phone market by
offering lower subscription fees than rivals. Growth in the
number of subscribers, which rose a net 163,600 to 16.1 million
in April, may help the company offset declines in per-user
revenue.

The chance of Softbank failing to meet its debt obligations
within the next five years has declined to 21 percent from 28
percent last year, based on a JPMorgan Chase & Co. valuation
model that takes into account swap prices.

``Softbank's earnings looked good overall,'' said Kiyotoshi
Yasuda, chief risk manager of the credit trading department at
JPMorgan Securities Japan Co. in Tokyo. ``Softbank credit-default
swaps showed little reaction to the announcement because the
market has already priced in an increase in sales.''

Credit-default swaps are the fastest-growing part of the
$370 trillion global derivatives market. They allow investors to
speculate on shifts in a company's credit quality without paying
money up front, as would be required when buying bonds.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at

Oliver Biggadike in Tokyo at
.